Breaking down Five Years of Southwest Growth at STL

7/6/2019 - M. Lawder
Southwest has been the dominate carrier at STL since AA wound down the former TWA hub and they continue to grow their departures at the airport pretty much each year. In 2018, they served 46 domestic destinations with regular service as well as a handful of international routes.

What does that growth look like? When looking at number of departures, Southwest flew a total of 29,912 departures in 2014 serving 3,365,799 passengers and in 2018 those numbers had grown to 38,851 departures and 4,840,496 passengers. Growth (in passengers) can come from adding new routes, adding more frequency in existing routes, or putting larger planes on a route. Since Southwest only uses two 737 configurations, the 700 (143 passengers) or 800 (175 passengers) and their MAX variants (although those are currently not is service), they have some hard limits on up sizing the airplanes on a route, so most of the growth has come from adding new routes and adding frequency, making departures an easy way to look at growth.

Since 2014, Southwest added 12 new routes mostly to West Coast and smaller Midwest cities (CHS, BDL, SJC, SMF, OAK, PDX, PIT, AUS, ICT, LIT, DSM, CLE) while only dropping one route (Grand Rapids). They did start and subsequent stop a route to John Wayne airport in Southern California, too. Other than Portland, the routes all were new destinations for STL or replacing existing service cuts (in the case of PIT and CLE).

On 15 existing routes Southwest added significant frequency, while only lowering frequency on two routes (other than GRR). Both of those routes were to Midway-Chicago and Dallas-Love Field. Because of all the new routes and increased frequencies, it make sense that Southwest could reduce frequencies to those two hubs that serve a lot of connecting traffic. The ability to fly direct should lower the need for STL passenger to connect through either Dallas or Chicago. So the reduction in flights to these hubs may actually be a good sign that STL can serve it's passengers better without needing to connect as much. Overall, the route increases were not concentrated in any geographic areas. There was frequency growth to destinations in on both East and West Coasts, the Midwest, the South and a couple of spots in between. The below charts show the changes in departures for all routes at the end of 2018


Increased: Routes with at least 100 more flights in 2018, No Change: Within +/- 100 flight from 2014-2018. Decreased: Routes with at least 100 less flights in 2018

Left: Individual routes 5year departure changes at STL. Right: Indivdual ROutes stacked to show total departures at STL


In total, the growth in new routes and frequencies has expanded passenger's options with only limited pull back from a few hubs. Unless you are frequent Grand Rapids visitor, the change seems positive all around. It will be interesting to see if the growth at STL will continue at the same rate in 2019 for Southwest with the 737-MAX grounding putting constraints on their expansion.

While STL is a growing market for Southwest, how has it compared to the growth in the rest of Southwest's network? We compared the 5 year growth in passengers and departures for all of Southwest's destinations. When focusing on airports where Southwest flew at least 1 million domestic travelers on departing flights 2014, STL 5 yr passenger growth was one of the highest at Southwest. There were 36 airports that Southwest had at least 1 million departing customers in 2014 and all but two of those saw growth between 2014 and 2018. St. Louis' 43.8% increase in total passengers during those five years ranked 4th overall behind only Atlanta, Dallas, and Fort Lauderdale.

Below are the numbers for the 36 airport that were looked at and if you want to dig into the individual route numbers you can use the Airline Data Browser tool (although it has a limited selection of airports to choose from at this time).

Airport % Passenger Growth 2018 Passengers 2014 Passengers % Departure Growth 2018 Departures 2014 Departures
ATL 127.69 5,113,323 2,245,780 101.56 41,487 20,583
DAL 63.37 7,520,917 4,603,509 44.81 62,671 43,279
FLL 54.74 3,190,320 2,061,675 43.42 24,904 17,364
STL 43.81 4,840,496 3,365,799 29.88 38,851 29,912
CMH 41.04 1,474,288 1,045,275 29.97 12,198 9,385
SJC 38.54 3,354,556 2,421,374 30.98 29,579 22,583
BNA 35.47 4,343,550 3,206,233 25.15 35,266 28,178
SMF 34.47 3,265,804 2,428,597 25.71 27,848 22,152
AUS 33.67 2,844,141 2,127,806 27.35 23,209 18,225
BUR 33.15 1,972,878 1,481,716 26.19 18,560 14,708
BOS 32.56 1,444,082 1,089,340 24.94 11,548 9,243
LGA 32.38 1,375,358 1,038,935 21.41 10,871 8,954
PDX 30.51 1,754,529 1,344,352 30.39 14,552 11,160
DEN 29.49 9,238,404 7,134,232 20.76 68,481 56,708
MCO 26.72 5,556,692 4,385,050 17.37 42,100 35,869
RDU 26.23 1,268,934 1,005,288 17.51 10,529 8,960
SAN 25.61 4,625,895 3,682,630 17.72 37,940 32,228
OAK 25.47 4,627,213 3,687,828 18.68 39,981 33,687
TPA 23.73 3,548,689 2,868,148 16.70 28,437 24,368
MSY 21.37 2,411,943 1,987,324 15.41 20,268 17,562
MCI 17.42 3,023,687 2,575,160 15.03 25,543 22,206
LAX 16.55 4,950,684 4,247,772 10.52 42,045 38,043
PHX 15.69 7,702,684 6,658,313 9.08 61,848 56,698
BWI 15.05 8,804,760 7,653,099 7.66 70,619 65,597
ONT 14.89 1,383,982 1,204,610 8.67 11,864 10,917
SFO 14.76 1,842,243 1,605,261 10.20 16,256 14,752
SAT 13.23 1,978,043 1,746,963 6.40 16,595 15,597
PHL 11.30 1,117,982 1,004,491 -0.07 8,526 8,532
MKE 11.10 1,514,116 1,362,819 0.55 12,194 12,127
HOU 10.35 6,306,075 5,714,564 0.22 51,900 51,784
SLC 8.38 1,285,523 1,186,180 6.37 10,961 10,305
MDW 6.01 10,084,762 9,512,933 3.19 80,264 77,783
SEA 5.45 1,560,121 1,479,434 2.17 12,384 12,121
LAS 3.41 9,003,001 8,706,133 -0.92 72,975 73,655
SNA -1.72 1,847,277 1,879,587 -2.96 15,874 16,358
ABQ -14.35 1,342,401 1,567,220 -16.81 11,538 13,870

Data is for departing flights only. All data obtained from T-100 Domestic segments