Breaking down Five Years of Southwest Growth at STL

7/6/2019 - M. Lawder
Southwest has been the dominate carrier at STL since AA wound down the former TWA hub and they continue to grow their departures at the airport pretty much each year. In 2018, they served 46 domestic destinations with regular service as well as a handful of international routes.

What does that growth look like? When looking at number of departures, Southwest flew a total of 29,912 departures in 2014 serving 3,365,799 passengers and in 2018 those numbers had grown to 38,851 departures and 4,840,496 passengers. Growth (in passengers) can come from adding new routes, adding more frequency in existing routes, or putting larger planes on a route. Since Southwest only uses two 737 configurations, the 700 (143 passengers) or 800 (175 passengers) and their MAX variants (although those are currently not is service), they have some hard limits on up sizing the airplanes on a route, so most of the growth has come from adding new routes and adding frequency, making departures an easy way to look at growth.

Since 2014, Southwest added 12 new routes mostly to West Coast and smaller Midwest cities (CHS, BDL, SJC, SMF, OAK, PDX, PIT, AUS, ICT, LIT, DSM, CLE) while only dropping one route (Grand Rapids). They did start and subsequent stop a route to John Wayne airport in Southern California, too. Other than Portland, the routes all were new destinations for STL or replacing existing service cuts (in the case of PIT and CLE).

On 15 existing routes Southwest added significant frequency, while only lowering frequency on two routes (other than GRR). Both of those routes were to Midway-Chicago and Dallas-Love Field. Because of all the new routes and increased frequencies, it make sense that Southwest could reduce frequencies to those two hubs that serve a lot of connecting traffic. The ability to fly direct should lower the need for STL passenger to connect through either Dallas or Chicago. So the reduction in flights to these hubs may actually be a good sign that STL can serve it's passengers better without needing to connect as much. Overall, the route increases were not concentrated in any geographic areas. There was frequency growth to destinations in on both East and West Coasts, the Midwest, the South and a couple of spots in between. The below charts show the changes in departures for all routes at the end of 2018


Increased: Routes with at least 100 more flights in 2018, No Change: Within +/- 100 flight from 2014-2018. Decreased: Routes with at least 100 less flights in 2018

Left: Individual routes 5year departure changes at STL. Right: Indivdual ROutes stacked to show total departures at STL


In total, the growth in new routes and frequencies has expanded passenger's options with only limited pull back from a few hubs. Unless you are frequent Grand Rapids visitor, the change seems positive all around. It will be interesting to see if the growth at STL will continue at the same rate in 2019 for Southwest with the 737-MAX grounding putting constraints on their expansion.

While STL is a growing market for Southwest, how has it compared to the growth in the rest of Southwest's network? We compared the 5 year growth in passengers and departures for all of Southwest's destinations. When focusing on airports where Southwest flew at least 1 million domestic travelers on departing flights 2014, STL 5 yr passenger growth was one of the highest at Southwest. There were 36 airports that Southwest had at least 1 million departing customers in 2014 and all but two of those saw growth between 2014 and 2018. St. Louis' 43.8% increase in total passengers during those five years ranked 4th overall behind only Atlanta, Dallas, and Fort Lauderdale.

Below are the numbers for the 36 airport that were looked at and if you want to dig into the individual route numbers you can use the Airline Data Browser tool (although it has a limited selection of airports to choose from at this time).

Airport % Passenger Growth 2018 Passengers 2014 Passengers % Departure Growth 2018 Departures 2014 Departures
ATL 127.69 5113323 2245780 101.56 41487 20583
DAL 63.37 7520917 4603509 44.81 62671 43279
FLL 54.74 3190320 2061675 43.42 24904 17364
STL 43.81 4840496 3365799 29.88 38851 29912
CMH 41.04 1474288 1045275 29.97 12198 9385
SJC 38.54 3354556 2421374 30.98 29579 22583
BNA 35.47 4343550 3206233 25.15 35266 28178
SMF 34.47 3265804 2428597 25.71 27848 22152
AUS 33.67 2844141 2127806 27.35 23209 18225
BUR 33.15 1972878 1481716 26.19 18560 14708
BOS 32.56 1444082 1089340 24.94 11548 9243
LGA 32.38 1375358 1038935 21.41 10871 8954
PDX 30.51 1754529 1344352 30.39 14552 11160
DEN 29.49 9238404 7134232 20.76 68481 56708
MCO 26.72 5556692 4385050 17.37 42100 35869
RDU 26.23 1268934 1005288 17.51 10529 8960
SAN 25.61 4625895 3682630 17.72 37940 32228
OAK 25.47 4627213 3687828 18.68 39981 33687
TPA 23.73 3548689 2868148 16.70 28437 24368
MSY 21.37 2411943 1987324 15.41 20268 17562
MCI 17.42 3023687 2575160 15.03 25543 22206
LAX 16.55 4950684 4247772 10.52 42045 38043
PHX 15.69 7702684 6658313 9.08 61848 56698
BWI 15.05 8804760 7653099 7.66 70619 65597
ONT 14.89 1383982 1204610 8.67 11864 10917
SFO 14.76 1842243 1605261 10.20 16256 14752
SAT 13.23 1978043 1746963 6.40 16595 15597
PHL 11.30 1117982 1004491 -0.07 8526 8532
MKE 11.10 1514116 1362819 0.55 12194 12127
HOU 10.35 6306075 5714564 0.22 51900 51784
SLC 8.38 1285523 1186180 6.37 10961 10305
MDW 6.01 10084762 9512933 3.19 80264 77783
SEA 5.45 1560121 1479434 2.17 12384 12121
LAS 3.41 9003001 8706133 -0.92 72975 73655
SNA -1.72 1847277 1879587 -2.96 15874 16358
ABQ -14.35 1342401 1567220 -16.81 11538 13870

Data is for deprting flights olny. All data obtained from T-100 Domestic segments